A New Marketing Metaphor -
[Cached Version]
Published on: 9/28/2008
Last Visited: 8/23/2009
Robert Winsor, a researcher at Loyola Marymount University in Los Angeles, recently startled the marketing world by correcting an error nearly all marketing researchers have repeated for decades; and by correcting this error, he revealed a new marketing metaphor we can use to visualize the way people influence each other to adopt new products and services.
Winsor presented his paper to the 1994 Southwestern Marketing Association Conference, and you can imagine how those in attendance must have felt: You're carrying on business as usual and a young fellow points out a mistake you're making (like using division instead of multiplication in a calculation you've performed countless times).
You pause to consider his words and realize he's right.
What would you do? . . . throw him out? . . . give him your keys and retire?!
They gave Winsor a distinguished paper award.
Of course Winsor had the advantage of fresh knowledge in mathematics and physics which revealed the mistake.
Eventually, someone would have noticed.
In the past researchers had assumed a level of stability in market conditions that simply doesn't exist, and they had assumed a level of trial-and-error marketing practice that is unrealistic.
These assumptions had been required by research designs they used to figure adoption forecasts, the relative influence of advertising and other marketing factors, and to understand the role imitation plays in adopting new products.
The formulas they used demanded it, but now that has changed.
Winsor uses the term percolation to explain his understanding of how product innovations actually spread through a market, and he uses the example of a forest fire to illustrate it.
...
Ideas to keep in mind, thanks to Robert Winsor.
Reference: Winsor, Robert D. (1995).
Marketing Under Conditions of Chaos - Percolation Metaphors and Models.
Journal of Business Research, 34 (1995), pp.
181-189. www.businesspsych.org