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Published on: 5/1/2008
Last Visited: 7/25/2009
"It seems to change by the hour," quips Joe Long, executive vice president of acquisitions and development for Kimpton Hotels & Restaurants.
In fact, the outlook for lodging not only changes with each passing news story about the latest banking institution to find itself in sea of difficulties, but also
with each person you ask.
Long, like his peers, knows that the situation is no laughing matter.
There's no doubt that the nation's lending conditions are having an effect on lodging franchising and development.
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"I think whether it's for an existing hotel, and certainly for new construction, the terms of those loans-if you can get a loan-are substantially different than they were, certainly nine months ago, but even a month ago," Long says.
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The mega deals-the big corporate mergers-are pretty much shut down, because that level of financing is just simply not out there," Long says.
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"What's interesting as I talk to people, not just hotel real estate people, but general real estate people, is there is a general feeling is that the underlying real estate fundamentals are not nearly in as much chaos as just the liquidity crisis that currently exists," Long says.
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"Clearly, the growth isn't going to be what it's been," Long continues.
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"The CMBS market provided a tremendous amount of liquidity that drove down pricing on debt," Long says.
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"As economic times get tougher, owners get more anxious," Long says.
"When they get more anxious, or if their properties aren't performing, often, they look to make changes."
For a company such as Kimpton, which does not franchise, but manages its own and others' hotels in upscale space, the economic environment may present opportunities to shift some growth from new development to conversions.
"I think for people like us in the four-star sector, we may start to see opportunities for change of management in existing hotels," Long says.
Looking Forward
As previously mentioned, the crisis looms larger for some than others.
So which sectors and markets figure to fare better?
"I do think that the hotels in the major urban markets will feel less of an effect with respect to the economic downturn that we're in right now," Long says, "just because those markets have seen less new supply."
Looking back at the trough in the late 1980s and early 1990s, hoteliers can see a similarity.
At that time, the economy went south about the same time there was unprecedented supply growth just about everywhere.
"We don't have that level of supply growth today," Long says.