Business Today Egypt December2003 - Sector Survey -... -
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Published on: 12/1/2003
Last Visited: 1/23/2004
Daily turnover now hovers at about LE 60 million a day, according to Hussein Abdel-Halim, head of research at Sigma Capital and Business Today stock market columnist.
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Like many of his counterparts, Abdel-Halim has been surprised by the performance of the market."We were expecting the market to go up strongly," he says."But not as strongly as it has performed."
Slowly, the stock market is reclaiming its reputation as a moneymaker.But it's far from the glory days.
Bourse activity peaked in the late 1990s, when trading turnover reach as high as LE 400 million a day and averaged about LE 250 million a day, Abdel-Halim says.As a result of the devaluation of the pound, Abdel-Halim points out that in dollar terms turnover has fallen from highs of about
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Abdel-Halim of Sigma has been surprised by the performance of the CASE.
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In terms of size, Egypt's market ranks second in Africa behind South Africa and trails some of the Gulf States in the Middle East, according to Abdel-Halim.Egypt's market capitalization as a percentage of GDP is about 30 percent, but active stocks account for as little as 10 percent of GDP, he says.
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Abdel-Halim says the failure of the government to let the pound truly float has resulted in more than a dearth of dollars.It's another instance, he says, of government fickleness.
"It definitely has repelled a lot of investors and it has affected confidence in Egypt's ability to stick to declared policies," says Abdel-Halim.
The government has also set an ambivalent policy, he says, with interest rates.Rates are not low enough to stimulate growth or high enough to ease the demand for dollars relative to pounds.The government's policy to borrow money from local banks, a long-held policy seen as a way to reduce the carefully observed levels of foreign debt, has also crowded out private companies' access to loans, he says.
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But IPOs have all but dried since shares of Orascom Telecom were offered in 2000, says Abdel-Halim.
He sees the resumption of privatization as a vital way to attract more interest in the market."If you're going to a supermarket, you'd like to go to a supermarket where you can buy everything you need rather than just two or three items," he says.
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Abdel-Halim says there is some reason to be hopeful for the long-term viability of the Egyptian economy and the stock market.He expects exports to increase 50 percent from 2002 to 2005, primarily as a result of new natural gas discoveries.Since the government controls the natural gas industry, most of those new profits will be transferred into government coffers.This should particularly help in slowing down a rising budget deficit that has reached "alarming levels," he says.
"It will decrease the government deficit unless it's hugely misused, which is a possibility," says Abdel-Halim.