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Published on: 9/8/2006
Last Visited: 9/8/2006
for a heated debate on the wisdom of deputing troops to Lebanon as part of the United Nations' stabilization force, Erdogan chose a forum of the Organization of Islamic Conference (OIC) to speak on the subject.
The venue of the OIC conclave was highly significant - the ornate Dolmabahce Palace overlooking the Golden Horn in Istanbul, the abode of the last Ottoman sultan, Mehmet VI.Referring to the Levant, Erdogan said, "We can't forget our historic responsibility as an OIC member."
With these few words, Erdogan at once summoned memories of the Caliphate and a host of images from a distant past that modern Turkey has consciously tried to obliterate.Earlier in the evening, Erdogan was quoted as saying that a nation cut off from its past would have no future."We should own our values," he said.
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In a televised address to the nation, Erdogan made a forceful case for his decision.He said the only way to safeguard Turkey's interests would be by involving itself in the region, rather than remaining a "mere bystander"; the political opposition was "failing to comprehend world realities"; Turkey's "elevated interests" demanded involvement and any failure to do so "amounted to a betrayal of our past"; the preconditions for Turkey's deployment of troops were fulfilled (a UN mandate, a ceasefire and acceptability of a Turkish military presence by all parties concerned).
Erdogan ruled out any involvement of the Turkish contingent in a combat role or in any task to disarm Hezbollah.He said, "Hezbollah is a sovereign matter for Lebanon and is an interlocutor of the Lebanese government.
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Erdogan is now relegating to history that chapter of "masterly inactivity" in Turkey's Middle East policy.This hasn't happened all of a sudden.In his past three years in power, Erdogan dexterously took a huge arc, almost unobtrusively for the most part, of shifting the course of Turkish policy.
He followed a two-pronged approach.Even as he counted on the Foreign Ministry to maintain diplomatic ties with Israel on an even keel, he himself resorted to a "tilt" toward Turkey's Arab brethren at the political level.The "tilt" took the form of a more vocal stance within the OIC, intensified political exchanges with Arab countries, dealings with Hamas in Palestine, a warming of relations with Syria and Iran, and Erdogan himself directing an occasional barb or two against Israel.
Thus Turkey's political leadership blamed Israel for the latest flare-up in the Middle East, and was manifestly reluctant to criticize Hezbollah.Erdogan resorted to sharp rhetoric at the OIC's emergency meeting on Lebanon held in Kuala Lumpur on August 3.He said: "No justification can show what is happening [in Lebanon] to be innocent.
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Second, in political terms, Erdogan has been bearing the brunt of the chill in US-Turkey relations.A fresh turn offers itself during his forthcoming official visit to Washington on October 6-7.US backing will become useful for him politically when Turkey prepares for presidential and parliamentary elections next year.Erdogan is equally conscious that his Islamist credentials are useful for the US in the Middle East's politics.
Third, Erdogan intends to enhance Turkey's profile as a key player in the region.He hopes that along with Turkey's regional standing, his own leadership role in the Muslim world will get a fillip, and that in turn is bound to have resonance in the Islamic constituency in Turkey, especially if he projects himself as a candidate in the presidential election in May.
Finally, through a significant military presence in Lebanon, Ankara will be drawing the attention of the European Union once again to Turkey's unmatchable role as a bridge between the Western world and Muslim Middle East.
But there are dangers in Erdogan's audacious decision.First, there are inherent uncertainties in the Lebanon situation over which Turkey has no influence.Second, what today begins as a benign peacekeeping mission by the UN can transform in due course.
Third, Erdogan may believe that Turkey has a natural role to play in the Middle East but, as Michael Rubin, former Pentagon official and prominent Middle East expert with the American Enterprise Institute, put it, "His [Erdogan's] neo-Ottomanism aside, he is neither trusted by the Israelis nor the Lebanese.Third, Erdogan may believe that Turkey has a natural role to play in the Middle East but, as Michael Rubin, former Pentagon official and prominent Middle East expert with the American Enterprise Institute, put it, "His [Erdogan's] neo-Ottomanism aside, he is neither trusted by the Israelis nor the Lebanese.
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Many in Israel will not forgive his statements of sympathy for Palestinian terrorist groups, and the Lebanese remember that when they had their Cedar Revolution and the world was pressuring Syria to preserve Lebanese freedom, Erdogan chose Damascus over Beirut."
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To be sure, Bush's recent pledges of a larger anti-PKK effort had an effect on Erdogan.
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The president has made that assurance to Prime Minister Erdogan, and I think he was relieved.Now we've got to deliver on it."
The problem is, Washington has made such pledges in the past by way of appeasing Ankara and keeping it from intervening forcefully in northern Iraq.If Turkish expectations are not fulfilled this time around, Erdogan will face a serious problem, as he will be seen to be doing "America's job" in Lebanon.
And that is a public perception that Erdogan simply cannot afford with an election year looming.
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All in all, therefore, Erdogan has taken Turkish policy into uncharted waters.He is indeed a brave and gifted politician with an extraordinary track record of salvaging the ground from hopeless situations.But as opposition leader Deniz Baykal described last week, Erdogan is taking on epic forces.
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