Applied Analysis: A Financial Advisory + Economic... -
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Published on: 11/22/2006
Last Visited: 12/25/2006
That magazine cover now hangs on the wall of the office of Las Vegas money manager David Ehlers.
Ehlers, chairman of Las Vegas Investment Advisors, likes to show new customers the cover as a warning to those who might doubt Las Vegas' ability to sustain its often-times explosive growth rate.
"Since the 1950s, people have been underestimating the growth in Las Vegas.
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With Nevada's unemployment rate routinely lower than both California's and the nation's, Southern Nevada's job creation machine acts "like a giant vacuum cleaner, bringing people in here," Ehlers said.
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" Retirees don't want to die where it's cold, " Ehlers said, suggesting that many of the city's new amenities, including fine restaurants, are helping to entice retirees to move here.
Economics plays a part in many retirees' decision to move here, too.
In the case of California and some other high-priced states, retirees can sell their homes and buy a new one in Las Vegas and still have cash left over, he said.
"If Las Vegas' future is debatable, where are 100 million (baby boomers) going to go?" Ehlers asked.
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Ehlers thinks Wells Fargo, which expects an average annual growth rate of 3.8 percent, will be closer to the mark 20 years from now.
The county's minimum annual increase in population since 1988 was 4.24 percent in 2002, and the maximum was 8.4 percent in 1991, he said.The county population grew by an average of 6.6 percent yearly in the 1980s and 8.6 percent in the 1990s.
"If we look at today's forces for growth in addition to the historical ones, meaning the development of downtown and more corporate and service activity, it is difficult to imagine that the population and employment growth won't be at least equivalent to the lowest growth over the last 20 years or so," Ehlers wrote in an e-mail.He did express short-term concerns about housing prices, however.