Paul Donnelly

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  Abbey National Selects Fair, Isaac Decision System For... - [Cached Version]
  Published on: 7/9/2002    Last Visited: 2/2/2003  

  "Investment banks, hedge funds and asset managers are looking for better ways to take advantage of the large amounts of historic data available to them today," said Paul Donnelly, chief executive officer of Prediction Dynamics."Crucible is based on a revolutionary new approach that uses historic data, such as that provided by Reuters DataScope, to build consistently accurate predictive financial models.The predictions produced by these models can be used to drive profitable systematic trading strategies or to actively manage financial risk."
  
  "Information is the foundation of good decision making," said Piers MacWhannell, Third party relationship manager, Reuters."Reuters DataScope provides the extensive, high-quality data that works with Crucible models to make solid volatility and asset return predictions.This bolsters Reuters aim to support its clients' market risk activities."

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  Hedge Funds - [Cached Version]
  Published on: 9/8/2001    Last Visited: 6/20/2002  

  "We are already achieving significant market traction since Crucible 1.0 was launched in February," said Paul Donnelly, CEO of Prediction Dynamics."The addition of a sales director with Elma's wide experience will enable us to take full advantage of the business opportunities that exist for sophisticated financial prediction infrastructure."

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  IONA Press Room: News on Web Services Integration, End... - [Cached Version]
  Published on: 5/10/2001    Last Visited: 3/2/2002  

  "Orbix 3 re-defines how CORBA middleware products are delivered," stated Paul Donnelly, senior product manager for ORB product at IONA Technologies."Not only do customers receive the most popular CORBA product with Orbix 3, they also get tight integration with Windows applications, the inherent ability to build secure e-commerce applications and a fast intuitive development environment.We believe Orbix 3 represents a new level for CORBA middleware products."

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  News Release: Reuters and Prediction Dynamics partner... - [Cached Version]
  Published on: 2/15/2002    Last Visited: 11/3/2002  

  "Investment banks, hedge funds and asset managers are looking for better ways to take advantage of the large amounts of historic data available to them today," said Paul Donnelly, chief executive officer of Prediction Dynamics."Crucible is based on a revolutionary new approach that uses historic data, such as that provided by Reuters DataScope, to build consistently accurate predictive financial models.The predictions produced by these models can be used to drive profitable systematic trading strategies or to actively manage financial risk."
  
  "Information is the foundation of good decision making," said Piers MacWhannell, Third party relationship manager, Reuters."Reuters DataScope provides the extensive, high-quality data that works with Crucible models to make solid volatility and asset return predictions.This bolsters Reuters aim to support its clients' market risk activities."

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  News Release: Reuters and Prediction Dynamics partner... - [Cached Version]
  Published on: 2/12/2002    Last Visited: 10/31/2002  

  "Investment banks, hedge funds and asset managers are looking for better ways to take advantage of the large amounts of historic data available to them today," said Paul Donnelly, chief executive officer of Prediction Dynamics."Crucible is based on a revolutionary new approach that uses historic data, such as that provided by Reuters DataScope, to build consistently accurate predictive financial models.The predictions produced by these models can be used to drive profitable systematic trading strategies or to actively manage financial risk."
  
  "Information is the foundation of good decision making," said Piers MacWhannell, Third party relationship manager, Reuters."Reuters DataScope provides the extensive, high-quality data that works with Crucible models to make solid volatility and asset return predictions.This bolsters Reuters aim to support its clients' market risk activities."

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  Rational Quantify for Windows Home - [Cached Version]
  Published on: 12/23/2002    Last Visited: 9/19/2003  

  - Paul Donnelly, Product Group Director, IONARead the full story.

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  Sunday Business Post - [Cached Version]
  Published on: 9/12/2004    Last Visited: 9/12/2004  

  Paul Donnelly, a former senior product manager with Iona Technologies, quit his post as chief executive of the company at that time.

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  TIMEeurope.com: Digital Europe -- Mastering the Market - [Cached Version]
  Published on: 6/8/2002    Last Visited: 6/8/2002  

  Paul Donnelly, CEO of Ireland's Prediction Dynamics (http://www.predictiondynamics.com/) muses that had his company's software, Crucible, existed back then, LTCM might have sidestepped its meltdown.
  
  The startup company's software takes a quantitative approach to market analysis, using complex mathematical formulas and historical data to predict in which direction markets - or even individual stocks or currencies - are headed.It allows users to build and maintain models that presage market movements.Donnelly says the software relies on two key technologies: nonparmetric and multivariate.For the uninitiated, the former means that the software makes no underlying assumptions, even in its math.For instance, it doesn't assume - as did the formulas used by the errant LTCM traders - the infallibility of bell curves.While it doesn't precisely rely on chaos theory, Crucible takes into account that, well, the unpredictable happens."Markets don't always behave in nice, disciplined ways - you have to allow for eccentricities," Donnelly says.
  
  Of course, that doesn't mean that Crucible, or any systematic trading software, can anticipate something as bizarre and monumental as last September's terrorist attacks on the United States.Obviously some non-financial events are beyond prediction, even though they affect markets.But it can account for the possibility of, say, interventions of federal banks, or how the fall of a small Asian telecom might have a knock-on affect on Europe's telecommunication sector.
  
  Multivariate technology means that markets and financial instruments react to many different contributing factors, and Prediction Dynamic's software relies on a large range of historical data.It's also capable of maintaining a huge number of models simultaneously - it can handle models based on 3,500 separate instruments at once.
  ...
  Donnelly expects a strong revenue stream by next year, and first profits by 2003.
  
  A number of well-known clients are now using Crucible in trials, but Donnelly says he is not yet at liberty to name them.That would risk jeopardizing those deals at this early stage, and risk-avoidance is something Prediction Dynamics understands all too well.
  
  Click here to visit our advertiser.>

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  TIMEeurope.com: Digital Europe -- Mastering the Market - [Cached Version]
  Published on: 4/26/2002    Last Visited: 4/27/2002  

  Paul Donnelly, CEO of Ireland's Prediction Dynamics (http://www.predictiondynamics.com/) muses that had his company's software, Crucible, existed back then, LTCM might have sidestepped its meltdown.
  
  The startup company's software takes a quantitative approach to market analysis, using complex mathematical formulas and historical data to predict in which direction markets - or even individual stocks or currencies - are headed.It allows users to build and maintain models that presage market movements.Donnelly says the software relies on two key technologies: nonparmetric and multivariate.For the uninitiated, the former means that the software makes no underlying assumptions, even in its math.For instance, it doesn't assume - as did the formulas used by the errant LTCM traders - the infallibility of bell curves.While it doesn't precisely rely on chaos theory, Crucible takes into account that, well, the unpredictable happens."Markets don't always behave in nice, disciplined ways - you have to allow for eccentricities," Donnelly says.
  
  Of course, that doesn't mean that Crucible, or any systematic trading software, can anticipate something as bizarre and monumental as last September's terrorist attacks on the United States.Obviously some non-financial events are beyond prediction, even though they affect markets.But it can account for the possibility of, say, interventions of federal banks, or how the fall of a small Asian telecom might have a knock-on affect on Europe's telecommunication sector.
  
  Multivariate technology means that markets and financial instruments react to many different contributing factors, and Prediction Dynamic's software relies on a large range of historical data.It's also capable of maintaining a huge number of models simultaneously - it can handle models based on 3,500 separate instruments at once.
  ...
  Donnelly expects a strong revenue stream by next year, and first profits by 2003.
  
  A number of well-known clients are now using Crucible in trials, but Donnelly says he is not yet at liberty to name them.That would risk jeopardizing those deals at this early stage, and risk-avoidance is something Prediction Dynamics understands all too well.
  
  Click here to visit our advertiser.>

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  The Post.ie :: Technology - [Cached Version]
  Published on: 4/1/2002    Last Visited: 9/8/2004  

  Prediction Dynamics, founded by ex-Iona executive Paul Donnelly and ex-Trinity College lecturer John Carney, received a last tranche of €700,000 from ACT Venture Capital and Enterprise Ireland.
  ...
  "The market for sophisticated financial prediction infrastructure such as Crucible is growing rapidly as financial institutions look for new techniques to quantify, measure and manage opportunity and risk," said chief executive Paul Donnelly.

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