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  1. 1. Venice Gondolier - 12/14/02
    www.venicegondolier.com/NewsAr - [Cached]

    Published on: 12/14/2002   Last Visited: 12/14/2002

    "Retailers' expectations are often too optimistic," said Larry Clark, economics professor at Edison Community College. "I don't know if they even believe their own predictions. A lot of it is trying to boost consumer confidence -- 'It's a banner year, and if people are out spending money, I should be, too.' "

    This year's predictions depend on the source.
    ...
    Clark said disposable income is the No. 1 factor as to whether retailers will have a good year.

    "Politicians don't want to say 'you may lose your job,' " Clark said. "They don't want to talk about terrorism. But consumers' income and disposable income is mostly what retailers depend on."

    And consumer confidence can have a bearing on sales. In October, The Conference Board research group reported consumer confidence at its lowest level in nine years. However, the University of Michigan reported a rebound in consumer confidence in November.
    ...
    Consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the gross domestic product, according to Clark.

    Myvesta, a North Carolina-based financial counseling center, is also predicting a minor decrease over last year. A random survey of 1,000 people discovered last year the average holiday shopping list tallied up to $773. This year, it is expected to be about $722. About 42 percent of shoppers plan to spend less than $500.

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