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Published on: 1/20/2002
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NEDA Director General Dante Canlas; The Buck Begins Here By Vanni de Sequera
[Sunday, November 18, 2001]
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NEDA Director General Dante Canlas; The Buck Begins HereBy Vanni de SequeraPublish Date: [Sunday, November 18, 2001]
Life was so much simpler before floating exchange rates and globalization.Currencies were pegged to gold and a country's reserve of the precious metal served as a straightforward reality check–much like the way the chunkiness of jewelry dripping from his neck and wrists determines a gangster's standing today.Back then, the Philippines still did not guiltily smell its behind each time the US experienced economic flatulence.
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Dante Canlas, neda's 54-year old Director-General, is also concurrently Secretary of Socio-Economic Planning.Canlas and his team work 12 hours a day going through the arcane process of interpreting a mountain of economic statistics.It's a contentious business, perhaps because if all economists were laid end to end, as George Bernard Shaw once said, they still would not reach a conclusion.
Canlas, a mathematician who received his Economics Ph.D from the University of the Philippines School of Economics (upse) in 1978, is eminently qualified for the position.He has spent most of his working life as a Professor of Economics and was a research fellow in Tokyo's Institute of Developing Economies and Princeton University's Industrial Relations Section.Canlas always thought he would round out his career in the academe until he was challenged to put his money (or his theories) where his mouth is.
"In economics, it's difficult to avoid public policy issues.Much of economics is really political economy.When I was invited in 1992 by (then Socio-Economic Planning Secretary Cielito) Habito to be one of his deputies in charge of the National Development Office, I thought I would give it a try and see whether or not the things that I've been teaching would have some practical application.I think it did because that was the time when Pres. Ramos accelerated all the structural policy reforms that President Aquino started in the area of trade liberalization and industry deregulation.It was a very exciting time to be in government," he says.
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Explains Canlas, "The personal and professional relationships among all of us are very smooth and productive.Very cordial, too.Among the more important committees in the neda is the Development Budget Coordination Committee–this particular committee recommends to the President the national government budget, which the President will submit to Congress.Another important committee would be the Investment Coordination Committee.This particular body is the one that will peruse all public investment projects worth at least P300 million, many of them funded by the Official Development Assistance.One other major task is to coordinate the preparation of the medium-term Philippine development plan."
It certainly helps that Canlas need not restrain himself in resorting to his profession's lexicon when communicating with the President, herself a Ph.D graduate of the upse.
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Canlas admits many in his circle of friends are fellow economists.Besides the inevitable debates over public policy and the juicy speculation about the personalities behind lobby groups, what do a bunch of economists talk about over drinks?"We like to talk about the return of Michael Jordan.We also talk about the Ateneo-La Salle series and PBA games.And then there's the usual male locker-room type banter," Canlas laughs.Presumably, the testosterone-laced jousting is more subdued in the company of the formidable Mareng Solita Monsod.
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Says Canlas, "The statistical system of the government has been evolving over a long period of time.When you notice some numbers that appear to be outdated, then you have to be more questioning and go over the numbers again to make sure that they sit well with other data sources.We do get swamped with lots of official statistics–you have to be very careful in interpreting them.You could be looking at the same set of data but still come up with different interpretations.What you want to do when you have conflicting explanations is to go beyond your technical models and go by your instinctive sense of right and wrong.Failing that, you just have to consult other experts."
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Even after the aftershock of the September 11 terrorist bombings in the United States, Canlas staunchly declares there is no need to revise GDP targets.He rattles off indicators to prove that maintaining the growth rate of 3.3 percent is not a pipe dream: increased production as gleaned from an increase in employment; improved capital equipment as well as raw materials importation; normalcy in the currency market; declining interest rates thanks to the efforts of the G7 central bankers; falling crude oil prices; and a decline in the inflation rate from 6.3 to 6.1 percent.
He says there's more good news."The budget deficit reduction program is very much a part of our macro-economic program.We believe that this will contribute to stability and economic growth.Government borrows to finance a very large budget deficit and this crowds out the funds that otherwise would go to private investments.This year, we're quite happy the way things are turning out because we are well within our target deficit of P145 billion.Next year, we're targeting P130 billion and we hope to balance the budget by the year 2006.This is a gradual deficit reduction program.
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Canlas becomes prickly over this perception."We do better than the other so-called international organizations that forecast," he insists."We are closer to the actual figure than many of them."
Canlas is a wide reader of fiction (some may claim any pronouncement concerning the Philippine economy's relative health is itself a product of creative writing).Among his favorite authors are Tom Robbins, Philip Roth, and Norman Mailer–their books take his mind away from economics, he says.Fortunately, his attention does not stray too far from plotting the nation's economic course.
"The global slump in the demand for electronics and information technology in 2001 was an eye opener.The lesson learned now is that you cannot build a modern and industrialized society on just one major export product, so you have to diversify.The Philippines is doing well in that regard.As a result, we still managed a 3.3 percent real growth rate in GDP–higher than some of our neighbors.I think our economy has a newfound strength and we will be able to overcome all these uncertainties arising from the terrorist attacks in the US," Canlas says, boldly affirming that even Osama Bin Laden is no match for Filipino resiliency.
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