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Published on: 6/29/2007
Last Visited: 7/1/2007
Hugh Bredenkamp, the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) senior resident representative in Turkey, warned the country of an economic slowdown after enjoying years of high growth. > >
"Moreover, some sensitive issues regarding the economy are still waiting to be handled," he added.Bredenkamp was a guest speaker at the Turkish Economy in Global Competition conference, held by the Turkish Industrialists and Businessmen's Association (TÜS,AD) and the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung foundation in ,stanbul.
Turkey has demonstrated impressive economic performance recently, an indicator of the change in the country's economic thinking and institutions."Therefore, there are still a lot of factors to preserve optimism," he said.Bredenkamp then predicted that the coming five years may present some problems in terms of growth."Starting in 2007, it has become extremely urgent to tighten policies against inflationist pressures.It is necessary to have new, replenished and refreshed acceleration," he explained.
The process to combat inflation has also been impressive, and a certain level of success has already been achieved, the IMF official asserted, adding that the central bank should reconsider their efforts from a stronger point of view.
In discussing the 6.5 percent annual primary surplus target, Bredenkamp opined that it still needs to be high."Of course we can't say this target will last forever; one day there will be alleviation.Yet we don't believe that we have reached that point yet.It is still not the proper time to decrease the target," he claimed.
Looking at the recent turbulence in the markets, Bredenkamp commented that the Turkish economy has sensitivities and vulnerabilities, particularly that the overvalued currency is exposing Turkey to market fluctuations without enough shelter for protection."The mission ahead must be this," he stipulated, "Before everything, strong policies to raise Turkey from the middle ranks among emerging markets to upper levels must be put into action.A strategy to meet the necessity of providing high and sustainable growth rates must contain these premises: Besides keeping inflation at single-digit levels and promoting a decrease, Turkey must also lower public debts, create stronger reserves, implement a more effective tax structure, design a more flexible labor market, develop financial markets and encourage more competitive production."
Bredenkamp, on the other hand, said the debts of the country don't seem overly intimidating.Decreasing its percentage of the gross domestic product (GDP) to 30 percent may be good target, he stated.The official also criticized the implementation of an expensive labor force: "High severance pay and minimum wages are real burdens on companies, like taxes," he said.