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Published on: 8/19/2008
Last Visited: 8/19/2008
CL King & Associates senior analyst and senior VP Jim Boyle said on Tuesday (Aug. 19) that radio's July revenue will be down 6%-7% -- worse than the Street's projections of a 4% drop.Either way, it will be the 15th straight negative revenue month."Radio has entered and seems stuck in a new, discouraging territory with the combined challenges of a secular slide and cyclical recessionary times," Boyle said in a note to investors.
Boyle also pointed out that in the nearly 40 markets' data from July he's analyzed, there's been a spread of 900 basis points between the average big-market drop and the average small-sized-market revenue increase.In July, the average big market was down 7% and mid-markets were off 5%, while the average small market was up 2%."The consistently better small-market outperformance continues as radio's cyclical and secular decline overwhelms the few relative bright spots," Boyle said."This might not change when the economy revives."
Noting that the average radio group guidance for the third quarter is down 5%, he says, "Little good news seems in the offing."He added that Q1 industry revenue was down 5%, Q2 revenue might have fallen 6%, and while the Street forecasts a Q3 industry revenue dip of only 2%, CL King forecasts a 5% Q3 revenue drop.
Responding to his own question, "What are radio leaders doing to change direction?"Boyle said, "Not much, it seems to us.