Degrees Or Better This is Me

 Web References

1. 1. NH Weather Data: HAMweather Forecasts

   www.nhweatherdata.com/cgi-bin/ - [Cached]

   Published on: 3/13/2005   Last Visited: 7/15/2006

   WE NEED HEAT INDEX READINGS FOR THREE HOURS OF 100 DEGREES OR BETTER. THE THREE HOUR RULE MAY BE TOUGH TO GET. EITHER WAY THIS HEAT WAVE HAS BEEN WELL ADVERTISED AND ANY HEADLINES CAN BE IRONED OUT CLOSER TO THE EVENT.
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   GFS/UKMET/ECMWF SHOW A LO PRES CENTER GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED SUN EVNG OVER NRN MN IN RRQ OF UPR JET MOVING OVER JAMES BAY AND IN ADVANCE OF SHRTWV DROPPING ESE THRU CNTRL CAN. THESE MODELS TRACK SFC LO ACRS ONTARIO JUST N OF LK SUP WITH ATTENDANT COLD FNT PUSHING INTO THE WRN ZNS LATE AT NGT. GFS QPF NEAR ZERO ... WHILE UKMET QPF JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS AS FNT PUSHES INTO CAPPED ENVIRONMENT AND BETTER QVECTOR CNVGC PASSES FARTHER N CLOSER SHRTWV/UPR JET. NAM/ CNDN ON THE OTHER HAND DVLP A WEAKER SFC LO FARTHER S CLOSER TO STALLED BNDRY OVER UPR MI AND THUS GENERATE MORE QPF OVER THE FA WITH WAD OVER THIS BNDRY. NAM FCST SDNG FOR CMX AT 09Z MON SHOWS ELEVATED CAPE ARND 1800 J/KG WITH LTL CIN WHEN LIFTING FM H9.
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   EXPECTING THE HIGHEST DEW POINTS (AROUND 70 DEGREES) ON SUNDAY TO BE FOUND TOWARD THE OHIO BORDER ... CLOSER TO THE SURFACE HIGH (LESS MIXING) AND WHERE HEAVY RAIN FELL YESTERDAY. FOR THE REST OF SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN ... EXPECTING MID TO UPPER 60S. BASED ON THOSE VALUES AND THE FORECASTED MAXES ... A HEAT ADVISORY WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO BE ISSUED AS WE GET CLOSER TO THE EVENT.
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   UNSTABLE AIRMASS AND WEAK SURFACE CONVERGENCE JUSTIFIES THE LOW CHANCE POPS FOR TUESDAY ... WITH MAXES CLOSER TO 90 DEGREES WITH THE ADDITIONAL CLOUDS AND POSSIBLE STORMS. OUR NEXT IN THE LINE OF PACIFIC STORMS TO TRACK ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA DURING THE MID WEEK PERIOD WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT ON WEDNESDAY. THIS NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM IS SLIGHTLY STRONGER THAN IT`S PREDECESSOR ... AND SHOULD ALLOW FOR A FARTHER SOUTH PENETRATION OF THE COLD FRONT.
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   DEWPOINTS WILL CLIMB BACK INTO THE 70S ... COUPLED WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOW TO MID 90S SHOULD YIELD HEAT INDEX VALUES UP OVER 100 DEGREES FOR MANY AREAS. AM SOMEWHAT CONCERNED ABOUT AND UPSTREAM MCS FORMING SUNDAY NIGHT ... THEN HEADING OUR WAY. STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS ... DEEP INSTABILITY CHANNELED INTO PARTS OF LOWER MI SUGGEST THIS POTENTIAL.