www.betanews.com/article/Digital_music_downloads_wont_r -
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Published on: 10/12/2008
Last Visited: 11/20/2007
At the same time, we see indications that downloads of digital music are increasing," noted Mark Best, an analyst at JupiterResearch."That said, digital music downloads are not replacing music CDs."
> Best was referring to a report issued today by Jupiter which forecasts that while spending on digital music downloads will step to $3.4 billion by 2012, CD sales will keep on dropping over the next five years.On the whole, the increase in downloads won't make up financially for the decline in CD sales, according to Jupiter's study.
But the ensuing prospects for the music industry, individual artists within it, and the listening public aren't necessarily all that bleak, Best suggested during an interview with BetaNews.
"Still, the music industry is a multibillion dollar industry.And among some customer segments, CDs will really never go away," he elaborated.
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The customer who buys CDs is generally not the same person as the one who downloads digital music," according to Best.
By and large, digital music downloads are most popular among teenagers.Further, many of those teens are downloading the songs on to Apple iPods, he continued.
"But adults still tend to like to have something they can hold in their hands, and they like to 'own' their music," he added.In many instances, digital downloads constitute more of a "rental" than an "ownership" model, according to the analyst.
The jury is still out on the question of whether, on reaching adulthood, today's teens will decide to emulate their elders and start pulling together CD collections of their favorite tunes of all times.
Best pointed to one reason why teens might not do so: Digital music downloaders can store music they want to hand on to on the Web, anyhow.
As for music CDs, nobody's quite sure why their sales have fallen so precipitously over the past two years, Best said.
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Best also posited that the absence of true music superstars over the past few years - particularly in the category of artists who can easily "cross over" between rock, R&B, rap, and other musical genres - might play a role in the dip in CD sales.
Why is the iPod such a successful platform for music downloads?"With (the iTunes Web site), Apple is making it very easy and convenient to download and store music," said Best.
Yet apparently, even teenagers purchase some CDs.The trend to downloading music on to iPods has really picked up steam over the past year or so, according to the Jupiter analyst.Before that, iPod owners were more likely than today to get music on to the devices by burning CDs - either bought from stores, or borrowed from friends - on to the hard drive, he recalled.
How is the Internet helping to widen the music market?"Artists no longer need to rely on the big labels to get their music out," Best replied.