Dave Ashuckian This is Me

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1. 1. Irwindale Chamber of Commerce - Environmental Committee

   www.envirocommittee.com/ - [Cached]

   Published on: 10/3/2007   Last Visited: 11/30/2007

   Dave Ashuckian, P.E., Manager, Electricity Analysis Office, California Energy Commission

2. 2. www.californiaenergycircuit.net

   www.californiaenergycircuit.ne - [Cached]

   Published on: 12/15/2006   Last Visited: 5/13/2007

   The presentation on projections for meeting summer 2007 load by Dave Ashuckian, CEC Electricity Analysis Office manager, was all well and good, if a little confusing with regard to charting the probabilities of hitting staged alerts.
   
   The bottom line under current statewide supply and demand assumptions is essentially for a 20 percent chance of a Stage One power emergency, a 5 percent to 10 percent chance of ratcheting to Stage Two, and a scant 1 percent likelihood of a Stage Three requiring firm-load curtailments (a.k.a. blackouts). Those probabilities were demonstrably higher for the SP26 zone in Southern California, he reported: at the worst something along the lines of a 50-50 chance of a Stage One, about a 1-in-3 potential for a Stage Two, and a remotely possible 1-in-14 risk of undesirable outages in the Southland next summer.
   ...
   The other somewhat troubling metric was what I understood to be an assertion by Ashuckian that, because of the structure of existing programs, interruptible contracts and demand responses are not triggered until there's a Stage Two emergency.
   ...
   But that doesn't mean, as Ashuckian seemed to be suggesting, that we should "reduce the alerts the public sees."

3. 3. www.envirocommittee.com

   www.envirocommittee.com/enviro - [Cached]

   Published on: 10/3/2007   Last Visited: 11/30/2007

   Dave Ashuckian, P.E., Manager, Electricity Analysis Office, California Energy Commission