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Eurasia Group is a research and consulting firm that focuses on political-risk analysis and industry research for global markets. Eurasia Group has expertise on 65 countries in Asia, Latin America, Emerging Europe & Eurasia, and Middle East & Africa.
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"You have growth in the region ...
"You have growth in the region averaging about 5 per cent every year for the last four or five years," says Sebastian Spio-Garbrah, an analyst for the Eurasia Group, a political risk consultancy based in New York.
Because of its sheer size, Spio-Garbrah sees Nigeria as a lynchpin for the continent.
"If the country is able to get its act together, it could spur the whole region to tremendous growth," he says.
Liberty Capital Holdings Ghana Ltd. - MEDIA CENTRE || Industry News > Nigerian Stocks, Africa 2nd-Best
The 213-member Nigeria Stock Exchange All Share Index, whose 21 percent gain is second in the continent to the 28 percent advance of Kenya's benchmark index, may reach 30,490 by yearend from 25,409 on June 30 as the Asset Management Corp. set up by the West African nation to buy toxic assets from lenders starts operating, said Sebastian Spio-Garbrah, chief executive officer of DaMina.
If Amcon does "only half of its work well," this will still trigger "a consolidation in the banking landscape, catalyze more foreign interest in the local market, and spur it to even higher values by yearend," New York-based Spio-Garbrah
said by e-mail.
Banks, which make up about 60 percent of the Nigerian equities market by weighting, will lead the resurgence, he
A debt crisis in 2009 left the country's lenders with toxic assets of about $10 billion, Spio-Garbrah estimated a year ago while working as an Africa analyst at Eurasia Group.
The central bank fired the top managers of eight of the country's 24 lenders and gave the industry an injection of 620 billion naira ($4.1 billion) to stem the decline.
Buying that debt will cost the central bank "roughly" $5 billion as commercial banks don't have collateral to cover the bad loans, Central bank Governor Lamido Sanusi
said July 1.
"Although the Amcon is itself initially capitalized by less than $100 million, it will have the authority to issue up to $5 billion in Nigeria sovereign-guaranteed bonds to buy the impaired assets from the banks," Spio-Garbrah
wrote in a note to clients on July 6.
Some stocks that will benefit include First Bank of Nigeria Plc
, the country's biggest lender by market value, United Bank for Africa Plc and Zenith Bank Plc
These banks would want to "unload their difficult and bad debts in exchange for fresh cash," he
Ghanafocus.com - international
Sebastian Spio-Garbrah, Africa analyst at Eurasia Group in New York is quoted as saying, "Bongo's main strategic task over the next decade will be to transform the sleepy oil-rich country into a less oil- dependent dynamic economy, while deepening the country's democracy,"
Amisah-Arthur "has no known monetary ...
Amisah-Arthur "has no known monetary policy experience and will have to quickly reassure the markets that he will follow orthodox monetary policies," Sebastian Spio-Garbrah, an analyst at Eurasia Group in New York, said in an e-mailed note.
"A win by the NPP in the second round will automatically produce a divided government, which will naturally create regular tensions around yearly budgets, ministerial appointments and privatizations," said Sebastian Spio-Garbrah, an analyst with Eurasia Group.
In a briefing note, Spio-Garbrah added that a second round win for the NDC presidential candidate could call into question some recent economic decisions taken by the ruling NPP, such as the sale this year of a 70 percent stake in phone operator Ghana Telecom to Britain's Vodafone.