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This profile was last updated on 1/29/15  and contains information from public web pages and contributions from the ZoomInfo community.

Mr. Michael Rogol

Wrong Michael Rogol?

Chief Executive Officer

Local Address: Boston, Massachusetts, United States
PHOTON Consulting LLC
200 Clarendon St
50Th Fl Boston , Massachusetts 02116
United States

Company Description: PHOTON Consulting's team has a rich knowledge base. The team includes MBAs and PhDs from top-tier academic institutions, former senior executives from...   more

Employment History

Board Memberships and Affiliations


  • BS , Foreign Service
    Georgetown University
  • MBA
  • PhD , Engineering Systems
139 Total References
Web References
Nonetheless, the level at which ..., 4 Feb 2014 [cached]
Nonetheless, the level at which Michael Rogol says disruption starts to happen is a bit oversimplified. The term he needs is "peak demand parity."
At the end of February, a conference was held in Japan on "Global energy turnarounds and Japan's path. Michael Rogol, CEO of Photon Consulting, gave an impressive presentation on photovoltaics, but strangely he asks in the PDF on the conference website that it not be shared. So I draw your attention instead to the full video of Session 2; his presentation begins just before minute 40.
Rogol provocatively asks why any country would want to build a lot of solar. He points out that solar experts have been predicting the negative impact on the stock value of corporations like RWE and Eon for years.
But I'm not arguing with Rogol that the limit should be closer to three percent than five percent. Rather, these markets generally went bust for reasons not related to what he's talking about. The Italians, for instance, had a budget set out from the outset, and the market basically shut down when that budget had been used up. We did not know at the outset how much PV exactly would be built for that money because prices were plummeting at the time.
Likewise, in Germany and the Czech Republic, it was the cost impact on ratepayers that led to policy changes, not the impact on conventional utilities.
Rather, I agree with Rogol that the bottom lines of conventional utilities are going to be hurt. And he's right that the pain starts for them at around five percent of supply in countries with greater power demand in the winter, like Germany.
Seminar Details: Michael Rogol 2007-01-11 - Engineering - CECS - ANU, 11 Jan 2007 [cached]
Home > Engineering Seminars > Seminar Details: Michael Rogol 2007-01-11
Solar Power Research at MIT
Michael Rogol (MIT)
Presentation of research directions in solar energy at MIT from Michael Rogol, the vastly experienced editor of Photon International magazine (see bio).
Michael Rogol is an analyst with MIT's Laboratory for Energy & Environment and Managing Director of Photon Consulting. He focuses on emerging trends in the energy sector and his recent work includes detailed reports on solar power (Solar Annual 2006: The Gun has Gone Off and Sun screen: Investment Opportunities in Solar Power) based on a global review of several hundred solar power companies. Michael's background in energy includes more than a decade of experience as a management consultant to large energy players with McKinsey & Co, Cambridge Energy Research Associates and Washington Policy & Analysis. Outside the energy sector, Michael has worked in politics (previously Special Assistant for Policy for the 1992 Republican Platform Committee, Executive Director of Powell'96, member of George W. Bush's 2000 High Tech Advisory Committee) and in entertainment (producer of 20 20 20 series of documentary films on Asian youth culture for CLSA and previously host of a prime-time show on Korea's top TV network, KBS). Academically, Michael holds an MBA from MIT and a BS in Foreign Service from Georgetown University and was a Henry Luce East Asian Scholar in Korea. He is pursuing a PhD in Engineering Systems at MIT and serves as a member of the Admission Committee for MIT's MBA program.
RED HERRING | Q-Cells IPO Raises $288.5M, 5 Oct 2005 [cached]
"This is a sign that the industry is no longer in its infancy," said Michael Rogol, an analyst with CLSA and MIT's Lab for Energy and Environment."As an analyst, I think it's in its adolescence."
Mr. Rogol added that solar companies have matured and are now being run by group of business people, instead of by a group of techies.
"And the financial markets are saying, ‘This group is trustworthy with money.There's real upside, and we can trust them to manage this money,'" Mr. Rogol said.
"These are the types of Internet growth curves that would make people go ‘Wow,' but it's profitable already," Mr. Rogol said."This isn't a cash vacuum; it's a cash generator.And when everyone was doing dotcoms, there was this swagger, this Gold Rush feel to it that is not apparent in the solar industry."
The investment community has been willing to give solar companies a lot more money over the last two years because they think the growth and earnings are sustainable for at least the next three years, he said.
Q-Cells is a star of the solar universe, said Mr. Rogol, who added he has no investments or affiliation with the company.The company makes only solar cells, not modules, but still competes with companies that make both, such as Sharp Electronics, Kyocera, and BP Solar.
"Q-Cells is the best pure play solar company," Mr. Rogol said."It's easy for investors to understand, it's got very good margins, it's got very good supplier and customer relations, and it has some risks, but those are risks that many investors are going to ignore.Out of the hundreds of companies we've scanned, they are way at the top."
Q-Cells has about 11 percent of the market share, in volume, between 10 and 11 percent of the revenue for solar cells alone, and about 10 percent of the total money spent on solar power, Mr. Rogol said.
The company's estimated revenue grew to $161 million in 2004 from $18 million in 2002, and Mr. Rogol projects they will grow to $380 million this year and up to $1.98 billion in 2010.He projects that pre-tax profit will grow to $76 million this year from $24 million last year, with net profit growing to $46 million from $14 million.
Michael Rogol, Managing ..., 8 Jan 2011 [cached]
Michael Rogol, Managing Director
Michael Rogol is the head of PHOTON Consulting. Prior to that, he worked as a research analyst for brokerage firm CLSA and as a management consultant for McKinsey.
Rogol holds an MBA from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). for Hampton Roads - Financial News, 22 Dec 2005 [cached]
"I have not seen a more beautiful example of rapid expansion of cash flow of any sector I've looked at and it looks like it will continue for the next few years," said Michael Rogol, a solar market analyst for CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets, a brokerage firm of Credit Lyonnais for large institutional investors.
Consumer demand has played a critical role behind the boom.In an effort to combat steep fuel and electricity bills _ a result of scorching oil and natural gas prices _ an increasing number of homeowners are snapping up solar panels.
"What we have seen globally is that most installations take six months or longer from the time of ordering," Rogol said.
This year, solar-energy companies are on track to rake in an estimated $12 billion in revenue worldwide, up 50 percent from 2004, according to Rogol.By 2010, he expects that figure to more than triple to $40 billion.
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