Consultants: Dr. George Manross, Strategic Research Institute; Steve Melikian, Jones Hall
has fielded the final survey to provide information critical to the Board's deliberations.
The data gathering was initiated immediately following the June 3, 2008 General Election.
Preliminary results are expected to be available at this Legislative Committee meeting, and a full report at the July 1, 2008 Board meeting.
The key information that is being sought by this process is an assessment of overall community support, changes in this level of support over time, and final information on a preferred option for wording the ballot question.
will be in attendance at this meeting to present the preliminary findings of the survey.
Due to the large sample size and the short timeline, the full report and analysis may not be completed by this date; however, it is anticipated that there will be sufficient information available to enable the Committee to develop a recommendation to the full Board.
will also be asked to present his
full report at the July 1, 2008 Board Meeting.
The testing standard by which staff generally recommends proceeding with the measure is the go/no-go threshold of 2/3 plus margin of error of the survey.
Based on the results of the survey as they will be presented this meeting, the Committee will be requested to discuss and make a recommendation on proceeding with the measure.
Recommendation: The Committee is requested to review the available information and make a go-no-go recommendation to the full Board regarding placement of the 2008 Regional Park Bond Extension on the November 2008 Election.
Dr. George Manross
made a presentation about SRI's June survey.
pointed out that he
only had results for 451 out of the 600 people surveyed.
identified that 72% likely support is a "go" in SRI's
go/no go model.
In the first survey in January, the bond extension was at 76.5% approval.
In March, it dipped to 72% approval on account of the economy, but the overall number has held in this final survey.
Opinion Leaders, which are 13.5% of the electorate, softened by 6.5% from 77% to 70.5%.
This number, however, holds across all six geographic areas (the recent data set does not include Livermore, only actual voters covered by the original Measure AA).
pointed out that in the January survey, 18% of the electorate said the country was in a recession.
pointed out that there was 76% approval for the 7% contingency.
believes there is sufficient data to go forward with the bond extension and recommend it to the full Board.
noted that including the Zoo pushes approval 2%.