(6 Total References)
Edward O. Hulburt worked out a ...
Edward O. Hulburt worked out a pioneering example of such a "radiative-convective" model in 1931.
Hulburt, a senior physicist at the Naval Research Laboratory, had a general interest in the structure of the upper atmosphere through his professional work on radio propagation and the ionosphere.
Taking a brief excursion away from matters that interested the U.S. Navy, he carried out a one-dimensional calculation, using data on the absorption bands of CO 2 and water far better than what was known in Arrhenius's time.
In his first attempt, Hulburt came up with an unreasonably high surface temperature.
He realized that this was because he had considered only the transfer of radiation up through the atmosphere.
If the lower atmosphere were actually so hot it would be unstable - the hot air would rise.
He put in a crude measure for transfer of heat by convection.
Now he got a figure that agreed with Arrhenius's rough estimate that doubling or halving the amount of CO 2 in the atmosphere would raise or lower the Earth's surface temperature several degrees
Unaware of the modern data that Hulburt
had used, they believed that laboratory measurements at the turn of the century had proved that the CO 2 and water vapor in the atmosphere already blocked infrared radiation so thoroughly that adding more gas would make no difference.
Critics also pointed out that Callendar, like both Arrhenius and Hulburt
, had not considered how a warmer and moister planet might have more clouds, which could reflect sunlight and maintain a cooler temperature.
had attempted to work through this, but even if the experts had noticed his
publication they would have found it too primitive to prove anything.
Möller's model, and all the earlier calculations back to Arrhenius (aside from Hulburt's
overlooked paper), had been flawed because they failed to take proper account of this basic process.(15*)
Whereas Arrehnius had left out convection, Hulburt
left out water-vapor feedback, and neither had good absorption data.
My thanks to S. Manabe for comments on this.
As late as 1967, when Manabe carried through the correct convection calculation, he
was unaware of Hulburt's work: personal communication, Jan. 28, 2008.
Arrhenius further had inadequate data for water vapor absorption, while Callendar and Plass as well as Hulburt
left out the water vapor feedback altogether.
(1931) . BACK
Timeline: From the November 17, 1934, issue, Science News Online, Nov. 20, 2004
Further proof that the layers of ionized atmosphere of the Earth from 62 to 124 miles above sea level have a fairly constant temperature, regardless of the time of day, night, or season, is presented in a report (Physical Review, Nov. 1) prepared by Dr. E.O. Hulburt of the Naval Research Laboratory.
The Carbon Dioxide Greenhouse Effect
An American physicist, E.O. Hulburt, pointed out in 1931 that investigators had been mainly interested in pinning down the intricate structure of the absorption bands (which offered fascinating insights into the new theory of quantum mechanics) "and not in getting accurate absorption coefficients."Hulburt's own calculations supported Arrhenius's estimate that doubling or halving CO2 would bring something like a 4,C rise or fall of surface temperature, and thus "the carbon dioxide theory of the ice ages ... is a possible theory."(10*) Hardly anyone noticed this paper.Hulburt was an obscure worker at the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory, and he published in a journal, the Physical Review, that few meteorologists read.
(1931), quote p. 1876; note also Simpson (1928), who finds CO2 adds a correction — but only a small one — to water vapor absorption.
Timeline: From the March 15, 1930, issue, Science News Online, March 18, 2000
This is the suggestion just made by Dr. E.O. Hulburt of the Naval Research Laboratory, in a report to the American Physical Society on the nature of the zodiacal light.
This light can usually be seen on a dark, clear night after twilight has gone.
The Carbon Dioxide Greenhouse Effect
An American physicist, E.O. Hulburt, pointed out in 1931 that investigators had been mainly interested in pinning down the intricate structure of the absorption bands (which offered fascinating insights into the new theory of quantum mechanics) "and not in getting accurate absorption coefficients.
Hulburt was an obscure worker at the U.S. Naval Research Laboratory, and he published in a journal, the Physical Review, that few meteorologists read.
(1931), quote p. 1876; note also Simpson (1928), who finds CO 2 adds a correction - but only a small one - to water vapor absorption.