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2014-02-18T00:00:00.000Z

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Wrong Christopher Cagan?

Dr. Christopher L. Cagan

Direct Phone: (213) ***-****       

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John Burns Real Estate Consulting , Inc.

9140 Irvine Center Drive Suite 200

Irvine, California 92618

United States

Company Description

John Burns Real Estate Consulting is an independent research provider and consulting firm focused on the U.S. housing industry. Its noted experts compile and analyze an unprecedented volume of information to keep its clients informed. Clients, including f ... more

Find other employees at this company (90)

Background Information

Employment History

Director of Research and Analytics

The First American Corporation

Real Estate Analytics Consultant

Independent Consulting

Education

bachelor's Degree

mathematics

University of California at Los Angeles

doctorate

mathematics

UCLA

doctorate

mathematics

University of California , Los Angeles

doctorate degree

mathematics

University of California at Los Angeles

master's Degree

mathematics

University of California at Los Angeles

Web References (192 Total References)


Meet the team at John Burns Real Estate Consulting, offering nationwide analysis. | John Burns Real Estate Consulting

www.realestateconsulting.com [cached]

Chris Cagan Vice President Leads the firm's forecasting efforts leveraging mathematical and industry expertise, ensuring that the forecasts are timely, accurate and of the highest quality, maintaining an industry leading position Extensive experience in the fields of forecasting home prices, automated valuation models, business cycle analysis, mortgage payment reset, foreclosure prevalence and discount, demographics, and diverse mathematical modeling Ph.D. in Mathematics from the University of California, Los Angeles Besides real estate analytics and mathematical economics, Chris enjoys reading alternate history


According to Chris Cagan, ...

lbbusinessjournal.com [cached]

According to Chris Cagan, vice president of John Burns Real Estate Consulting Inc. in Irvine, today's market - one that most experts agree has been artificially inflated to a degree by investors pumping money into a shortage of inventory - is not the best environment for get-rich profits in flipping homes.

"Home price appreciation has been so rampant, particularly in California and Florida, that flippers and get-rich-quick scam artists are flourishing again," Cagan said. "Just as in the mania of 2004-06, flippers make money when the party is raging, but inevitably, someone loses when the party is busted."
Cagan and his colleagues at John Burns have taken a very analytical look at the current state of flipping homes and have come to some interesting conclusions. The average reported net profit for flippers across the nation was 32 percent - that is allowing for the cost of repairs and sales. He allows that successful flips are more likely to be reported than the failures and challenges the premise that you can make a 30 percent profit in a market that he says is probably rising at the rate of 10 percent a year.
"The perceived gains from flipping are exaggerated . . ." Cagan added.
...
Cagan also cautioned about the "get rich quick" mentality that pervades the flipping market and the media hype that goes with it.
"Flipping has moved beyond a segment of professionals working with undervalued and distressed properties," Cagan explained. "Seminars, tours and television shows encourage people to invest with flippers or to flip homes themselves. As in the boom of the previous decade, many people see easy money to be made."
The fundamentals of the market appear to be on the upswing, but he cautions that there are elements at play that are creating artificial demand and that could leave unlucky flippers holding a property and some repair bills - with no buyer.
". . . [Do] not assume that recent successes will continue forever, and be cognizant of the fact that artificial demand - flippers flipping to other flippers - is the ultimate artificial demand and can distort (the) market," Cagan said.


Week of March 26, 2007

www1.rmahq.org [cached]

Looking at 8.4 million adjustable-rate mortgages written between 2004 and 2006, Christopher Cagen of First American CoreLogic expects about 13 percent of them, or 1.1 million, to enter foreclosure once their interest rates reset. While lenders stand to lose about $113 billion, Cagen does not anticipate any harm to the national economy, as it will take six years to seven years for the scenario to play out. His estimate climbs to 1.9 million foreclosures in the event that the average home price falls 10 percent from its December 2006 level and drops to 489,000 foreclosures if the average home price jumps 10 percent. The most vulnerable loans had initial "teaser" rates of less than 4 percent, with Cagen expecting a 118-percent surge in monthly payments on those loans when interest rates adjust. Read full text.


Week of March 13, 2006

www1.rmahq.org [cached]

First American Real Estate Solutions research and analytics director Christopher Cagen predicts nearly $200 billion in foreclosures.


Week of March 26, 2007

rmaweb.rmahq.org [cached]

Looking at 8.4 million adjustable-rate mortgages written between 2004 and 2006, Christopher Cagen of First American CoreLogic expects about 13 percent of them, or 1.1 million, to enter foreclosure once their interest rates reset. While lenders stand to lose about $113 billion, Cagen does not anticipate any harm to the national economy, as it will take six years to seven years for the scenario to play out. His estimate climbs to 1.9 million foreclosures in the event that the average home price falls 10 percent from its December 2006 level and drops to 489,000 foreclosures if the average home price jumps 10 percent. The most vulnerable loans had initial "teaser" rates of less than 4 percent, with Cagen expecting a 118-percent surge in monthly payments on those loans when interest rates adjust.

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