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Wrong Christopher Cagan?

Christopher L. Cagan

Director of Research and Analytics

First American Title Insurance Company

HQ Phone:  (714) 250-3000

Direct Phone: (800) ***-****direct phone

Email: c***@***.com

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I agree to the Terms of Service and Privacy Policy. I understand that I will receive a subscription to ZoomInfo Community Edition at no charge in exchange for downloading and installing the ZoomInfo Contact Contributor utility which, among other features, involves sharing my business contacts as well as headers and signature blocks from emails that I receive.

First American Title Insurance Company

1 First American Way

Santa Ana, California,92707

United States

Company Description

First American Title Insurance Company, the largest subsidiary of First American Financial Corporation (NYSE: FAF), traces its history to 1889. One of the largest title insurers in the nation, the company offers title services through its direct operations and...more

Background Information

Employment History

Vice President of Research

RealEstateConsulting.com


Director of Research and Analytics

RES


Spokesperson

Sen


Real Estate Analytics Consultant

Independent Consulting


Web References(199 Total References)


Week of March 26, 2007

www1.rmahq.org [cached]

Looking at 8.4 million adjustable-rate mortgages written between 2004 and 2006, Christopher Cagen of First American CoreLogic expects about 13 percent of them, or 1.1 million, to enter foreclosure once their interest rates reset.
While lenders stand to lose about $113 billion, Cagen does not anticipate any harm to the national economy, as it will take six years to seven years for the scenario to play out. His estimate climbs to 1.9 million foreclosures in the event that the average home price falls 10 percent from its December 2006 level and drops to 489,000 foreclosures if the average home price jumps 10 percent. The most vulnerable loans had initial "teaser" rates of less than 4 percent, with Cagen expecting a 118-percent surge in monthly payments on those loans when interest rates adjust. Read full text.


Week of March 26, 2007

rmaweb.rmahq.org [cached]

Looking at 8.4 million adjustable-rate mortgages written between 2004 and 2006, Christopher Cagen of First American CoreLogic expects about 13 percent of them, or 1.1 million, to enter foreclosure once their interest rates reset.
While lenders stand to lose about $113 billion, Cagen does not anticipate any harm to the national economy, as it will take six years to seven years for the scenario to play out. His estimate climbs to 1.9 million foreclosures in the event that the average home price falls 10 percent from its December 2006 level and drops to 489,000 foreclosures if the average home price jumps 10 percent. The most vulnerable loans had initial "teaser" rates of less than 4 percent, with Cagen expecting a 118-percent surge in monthly payments on those loans when interest rates adjust.


How Big Is The Foreclosure Discount? | : OurBroker

www.ourbroker.com [cached]

These are tough questions because if local markets are strong enough, there's no discount at all according to Christopher Cagan, Ph.D., director of research and analytics at First American Real Estate Solutions, the nation's largest provider of property and ownership information .
"In the booming years of 2004 and 2005, foreclosure rates reached historical lows," says Cagan in a new report, A Ripple, Not a Tidal Wave: Foreclosure Prevalence and Foreclosure Discount. "Homeowners who found themselves in difficulties could almost always sell their residences quickly and at a good price, thus avoiding damage to one's credit rating and receiving the benefit of remaining equity after paying mortgage balances and commissions. In cases where a lender did have to foreclose on a property, it could usually be sold readily at market price, without having to offer a substantial discount to encourage the sale of the foreclosed property." But the good times of 2005 and 2005 largely disappeared in 2006. Cagan, an economist, looked at 815,000 home sales in the first half of 2006 - including almost 25,000 foreclosures - and found evidence of significant foreclosure discounts. In California, for example, Cagan found that the typical home sold for $494,000 while the median foreclosure price was $435,000 - that's a difference of $59,000 or 13.5 percent. There's no doubt that $59,000 is a lot of money but there's a catch: Cagan found that the big price differential between homes sold at market value and those sold through foreclosure was not the result of an apples-to-apples comparison. In practice Cagan found that lower-priced homes were foreclosed more frequently, so foreclosure sale prices appear lower than a comparison of like homes might show. "On the whole," says Cagan, "the foreclosure properties sold for less than they had been valued for - less than their value would have been had they been offered on the market as non-foreclosed properties. When Cagan compared foreclosed homes with properties of similar size, location and condition, he found a $25,000 price differential - a property with a fair market value of $460,000 typically sold for just $435,000 through the foreclosure process - a difference of 5.4 percent. Nationwide, because the market was not generally as strong in the first half of 2006 as the California market, Cagan found a much steeper foreclosure discount. For instance, Cagan found that in the first six months of 2006 the foreclosure discount was 1.9 percent in Arizona but a whopping 27.8 percent in Missouri. In particular, Cagan found that "in markets where foreclosures constitute 8 percent or more of total market sales, foreclosure discounts are likely to be particularly large - often 20 percent or deeper."


Eminent Mortgage - FHASecure Fed offers mortgage bailout

www.eminentmortgage.com [cached]

Christopher Cagan, director of research and analytics for First American CoreLogic, has estimated that 1.1 million foreclosures will result from rate resets through the end of 2012, affecting both prime and subprime borrowers.


Who Pays Foreclosure Closing Costs? | : OurBroker

www.ourbroker.com [cached]

A study done by Christopher Cagan, Ph.D., the director of research and analytics at First American Real Estate Solutions, found that you can actually track the size of the foreclosure discount by looking at the percentage of distressed homes actively for sale.
Cagan's research showed that "in markets where foreclosures constitute 8 percent or more of total market sales, foreclosure discounts are likely to be particularly large - often 20 percent or deeper.


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