Charles R. Twardy, Ph. D.
DAGGRE forecasting project leader, George Mason University ( )
Charles R. Twardy, Ph.D., leads the DAGGRE forecasting project at George Mason University.
DAGGRE combines prediction markets with Bayesian networks to improve group forecasts.
It is funded by IARPA's
Twardy received a dual doctorate in history and philosophy of science and cognitive science from Indiana University.
works on evidence and inference with a special interest in causal models.
has worked on argument mapping, information-theoretic trajectory clustering, Bayesian modeling to counter-IEDs, Bayesian credibility models for sensors and human sources, information theoretic sensor
selection methods, hierarchical fusion models for image recognition, environmental models, epidemiological models and game-theoretic Bayesian networks.
Recent publications include a 2009 report to the National Research Council
on Bayesian methods for intelligence analysis.
In spare moments, Twardy
runs the SARBayes project, applying Bayesian search theory and machine learning to wilderness search and rescue, especially the analysis and prediction of lost-person