Ben Sage, director of Metrostudy's regional office in Mesa, Ariz., shared details about Phoenix's recovery during Builder's Housing Leadership Summit last week. He noted that Phoenix "is not all the way back yet. The 41,100 jobs this market added between March 2012 and March 2013 were "pretty tepid" by historical standards. But Sage sees encouraging signs of sustainable growth. For one thing, Phoenix's resale market, whose annualized sales rate rose to more than 80,000 in April, is "extremely strong. And because overall housing inventory is only 2.1 months, rents and single-family home prices are rising again, less encumbered by REO properties or short sales that continue to decline. (Sage noted that in the previous few months, there had been as many cancelled foreclosure notices as new foreclosure notices in Phoenix.) Sage elaborated that while there are nearly 54,000 vacant developed lots in Phoenix (about a 58-month supply at current absorption rates), only about 15,000 of these are in desirable locations. Sage showed that the available inventory of 45- to 89-foot lots ranges from 120 months in Maricopa to less than 30 months in Goodyear and North Scottsdale. And the number of newly recorded lots throughout Phoenix has been hovering at only around 2,000 for the last four quarters.

"This is the first wide scale increase in prices since 2005, but the increases are still lower than that of resale pricing over the same six-month period," said Ben Sage, director of Metrostudy's Phoenix division. New home starts in the Phoenix area numbered 9,975 during the year ending 3Q12, which represents a 66% increase over last year. Starts are based on Metrostudy's lot-by-lot survey of all new construction subdivisions in Maricopa and Pinal Counties. "Housing supply, both new and resale, is very tight as record-low mortgage rates and an improving economy are fueling home sales," according to Ben Sage. "From an historical perspective, new-home sales are still rather low, but many builders are reporting a two-fold increase in sales so far this year compared to 2011." New-home inventory, which includes under construction homes, has gone up this year from 5,744 units at the end of 2011 to 7,145 in 3Q12. Importantly, however, the number of new-home inventory units that are finished but vacant has fallen from 2,438 at the end of 2011 to 1,934 at the end of the third quarter, a 21 percent decline. "The increase in total new-home inventory reflects the increased demand, while the decline in finished vacant inventory indicates that builders can't keep up with demand," said Sage. "Builders are starting homes about as fast as they can, and they are scrambling to find land so they can grow with the market. They have raised prices, but these price increases will moderate as the seasonal slowdown this time of year allows builders to come up for air," said Sage.

Posted in Events, Phoenix - Tucson Market | Posted on 10-31-2012 | Written by Ben Sage If you are not a current subscriber and you wish to attend the event, please contact Ben Sage: 480.756.9300 Continue Reading Builders Respond to Increased Demand for New Homes Posted in Phoenix - Tucson Market | Posted on 10-29-2012 | Written by Ben Sage (Phoenix, AZ - October 26, 2012) With an under-supply of resale homes on the market in Phoenix, more and more buyers have been looking to the new-home market to meet their housing needs. This turnaround has challenged builders, who have had a difficult time building enough homes to meet buyer demand. Builders were starting to sell out of their communities faster than they could replace them, and their costs are going up. They have responded by limiting sales in some of their communities and raising prices an average of $15,000 from March to September, a 7 percent increase. "This is the first wide scale increase in prices since 2005, but the increases are still lower than that of resale pricing over the same six-month period," said Ben Sage, director of Metrostudy's Phoenix division. New home starts in the Phoenix area numbered 9,975 during the year ending 3Q12, which represents a 66% increase over last year. Starts are based on Metrostudy's lot-by-lot survey of all new construction subdivisions in Maricopa and Pinal Counties. "Housing supply, both new and resale, is very tight as record-low mortgage rates and an improving economy are fueling home sales," according to Ben Sage. "From an historical perspective, new-home sales are still rather low, but many builders are reporting a two-fold increase in sales so far this year compared to 2011." New-home inventory, which includes under construction homes, has gone up this year from 5,744 units at the end of 2011 to 7,145 in 3Q12. Importantly, however, the number of new-home inventory units that are finished but vacant has fallen from 2,438 at the end of 2011 to 1,934 at the end of the third quarter, a 21 percent decline. "The increase in total new-home inventory reflects the increased demand, while the decline in finished vacant inventory indicates that builders can't keep up with demand," said Sage. "Builders are starting homes about as fast as they can, and they are scrambling to find land so they can grow with the market. They have raised prices, but these price increases will moderate as the seasonal slowdown this time of year allows builders to come up for air," said Sage. Posted in Phoenix - Tucson Market | Posted on 10-29-2012 | Written by Ben Sage "Supply on the resale side is very tight, yet there is demand for housing as the economy is picking up," said Ben Sage, director of Metrostudy's Phoenix division. "Builders are reporting strong sales, and they are have been raising prices or even capping sales in some of their communities in an attempt to control the demand." New-home supply is also down, which indicates that builders are constructing homes only to meet current demand rather than building on spec. The number of new inventory units that are finished but empty, many of which are sold, fell 33% from this time last year and now number only 1,433 units, which is the new low point for this housing cycle. This represents a 2.1-month supply, "which is normal" said Sage. "The low count of new homes in inventory has been critical to the early stages of this recovery. Builders cannot satisfy demand from their current inventory of homes. New units have to be started when a buyer comes through the door." "Builders are actually bumping up against their capacity limits right now. New consruction requires labor, materials, and expertise that doesn't grow on trees," said Sage. Posted in Phoenix - Tucson Market | Posted on 07-19-2012 | Written by Ben Sage 06/06/2012: Metrostudy Director Ben Sage to Speak/Moderate Phoenix HBACA June General Membership Meeting Posted in Events, Phoenix - Tucson Market | Posted on 05-16-2012 | Written by Ben Sage Speaker and Panel Moderator: Ben Sage, Director Arizona Region See www.hbaca.org to register or contact Ben Sage for more information at 602.793.0777 or bsage@metrostudy.com. Continue Reading 05/03/2012: Metrostudy Phoenix 1Q12 Housing Market Executive Briefing Posted in Events, Phoenix - Tucson Market | Posted on 04-25-2012 | Written by Ben Sage Private client event; clients should have received an email invitation (non-clients contact Metrostudy Director Ben Sage at 480.588.1585 or bsage@metrostudy.com for more information) "Supply on the resale side is very tight, yet there is demand for housing as the economy is picking up," said Ben Sage, director of Metrostudy's Phoenix division. "Builders are reporting increased sales traffic through their models and strong sales, and they are starting to raise prices in many of their communities." New-home supply is also down, which indicates that builders are constructing homes only to meet current demand rather than building on spec. Total new home inventory (single family), which includes all homes that have been started but are yet to exhibit any evidence of occupancy, fell to only 4,449 units at the end of 1Q12. The number of new inventory units that are finished but empty, many of which are sold, fell 26% from this time last year and now number only 1,740 units, which is the low point for this housing cycle. This represents a 2.9-month supply, "which is manageable," said Sage. "Starts in the second half of 2011 were down 8% from the same period the previous year when the market was reeling from the expiration of the homebuyer tax credits," said Ben Sage, director of Metrostudy's Arizona division. Regarding new-home supply, inventory figures are reasonably low, which indicates that builders are constructing homes only to meet current demand. Total new home inventory, which includes all homes that have been started but are yet to exhibit any evidence of occupancy, fell to only 846 units at the end of December. The number of new inventory units that are finished but empty, many of which are under contract, fell 39% from the end of 2010 and now number only 318 units, which is the lowest reading since we started surveying the Tucson market in 2003. This represents a 2.6-month supply, "which is reasonable," said Sage, "especially given the current state of real estate. Ben Sage @ 480.756.9300 email: bsage@metrostudy.com Posted in Economy, National Housing Market, Phoenix - Tucson Market | Posted on 02-08-2012 | Written by Ben Sage

Posted in National Housing Market, Tucson Market | Posted on 11-01-2012 | Written by Ben Sage This appears to be due to a stronger resale market as existing home supply is down from last year while prices are up," said Ben Sage, director of Metrostudy's Arizona division. Regarding new-home supply, inventory figures are quite healthy, indicating that builders are constructing homes only to meet current demand. New-home inventory, which includes under construction homes, has gone up this year from 841 units at the end of 2011 to 996 in 3Q12. Importantly, however, the number of new-home inventory units that are finished but vacant has fallen from 318 at the end of 2011 to 263 at the end of the third quarter, a 17 percent decline. "The increase in total new-home inventory reflects the uptick in construction, while the decline in finished vacant inventory means families are moving in as soon as the homes are completed," said Sage. Posted in Events, Phoenix - Tucson Market | Posted on 10-31-2012 | Written by Ben Sage If you are not a current subscriber and you wish to attend the event, please contact Ben Sage: 480.756.9300 Posted in Phoenix - Tucson Market | Posted on 10-29-2012 | Written by Ben Sage (Phoenix, AZ - October 26, 2012) With an under-supply of resale homes on the market in Phoenix, more and more buyers have been looking to the new-home market to meet their housing needs. This turnaround has challenged builders, who have had a difficult time building enough homes to meet buyer demand. Builders were starting to sell out of their communities faster than they could replace them, and their costs are going up. They have responded by limiting sales in some of their communities and raising prices an average of $15,000 from March to September, a 7 percent increase. "This is the first wide scale increase in prices since 2005, but the increases are still lower than that of resale pricing over the same six-month period," said Ben Sage, director of Metrostudy's Phoenix division. New home starts in the Phoenix area numbered 9,975 during the year ending 3Q12, which represents a 66% increase over last year. Starts are based on Metrostudy's lot-by-lot survey of all new construction subdivisions in Maricopa and Pinal Counties. "Housing supply, both new and resale, is very tight as record-low mortgage rates and an improving economy are fueling home sales," according to Ben Sage. "From an historical perspective, new-home sales are still rather low, but many builders are reporting a two-fold increase in sales so far this year compared to 2011." New-home inventory, which includes under construction homes, has gone up this year from 5,744 units at the end of 2011 to 7,145 in 3Q12. Importantly, however, the number of new-home inventory units that are finished but vacant has fallen from 2,438 at the end of 2011 to 1,934 at the end of the third quarter, a 21 percent decline. "The increase in total new-home inventory reflects the increased demand, while the decline in finished vacant inventory indicates that builders can't keep up with demand," said Sage. "Builders are starting homes about as fast as they can, and they are scrambling to find land so they can grow with the market. They have raised prices, but these price increases will moderate as the seasonal slowdown this time of year allows builders to come up for air," said Sage. Posted in Phoenix - Tucson Market | Posted on 10-29-2012 | Written by Ben Sage

Posted in National Housing Market, Tucson Market | Posted on 11-01-2012 | Written by Ben Sage This appears to be due to a stronger resale market as existing home supply is down from last year while prices are up," said Ben Sage, director of Metrostudy's Arizona division. Regarding new-home supply, inventory figures are quite healthy, indicating that builders are constructing homes only to meet current demand. New-home inventory, which includes under construction homes, has gone up this year from 841 units at the end of 2011 to 996 in 3Q12. Importantly, however, the number of new-home inventory units that are finished but vacant has fallen from 318 at the end of 2011 to 263 at the end of the third quarter, a 17 percent decline. "The increase in total new-home inventory reflects the uptick in construction, while the decline in finished vacant inventory means families are moving in as soon as the homes are completed," said Sage. Resale inventory is declining, but there is still a great deal of distress in the housing market, which is likely to usurp a sustained homebuilding recovery this year," said Ben Sage, director of Metrostudy's Arizona division. Regarding new-home supply, inventory figures are reasonably low, which indicates that builders are constructing homes only to meet current demand. Total new home inventory, which includes all homes that have been started but are yet to exhibit any evidence of occupancy, fell to only 806 units at the end of 1Q12. The number of new inventory units that are finished but empty, many of which are under contract or sold, fell 27% from one year ago to only 318 units. This is the lowest reading since Metrostudy started surveying the Tucson market in 2003. The 318 units represent 2.6-months of supply, "which is acceptable," said Sage, "especially given the current real estate environment. Posted in Economy, National Housing Market, Phoenix - Tucson Market, Tucson Market | Posted on 11-07-2011 | Written by Ben Sage Ahhh … autumn. Ben Sage, Director of Metrostudy's Arizona Region, has been researching and analyzing housing markets for seventeen years. He has prepared hundreds of market studies in various cities around the country for numerous product types. His knowledge and experience combined with Metrostudy's accurate and reliable information have enabled Ben to advise many Arizona real estate firms in their risk assessment, decision making, and strategic planning. Ben has also been a resource for such publications as the Arizona Republic, East Valley Tribune, Phoenix Business Journal, Inside Tucson Business, Arizona Daily Star, Arizona Builder Magazine, Bloomberg News, and the Wall Street Journal. He can be reached at (480) 756-9300, option 3 or bsage@metrostudy.com, or visit www.metrostudy.com. "It has been a difficult operating environment for builders as the lower mortgage rates have not made up for the loss of the homebuyer tax credits," said Ben Sage, director of Metrostudy's Arizona region. "It will be a while before we recover all 30,000 jobs lost during the recession, but it looks like Tucson is starting that process," said Sage. Foreclosures issues will continue into 2011, but expanded job growth may allow starts in the region to remain level," said Sage.